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  1. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by Sup3rb View Post
    +10 talisman will be way easier to made than +15belt imo and do ppl cry about belts? no.
    wa/fs/gl has now more choices - ultimate tank/less dmg - solid dmg/solid tank - ultimate dmg/crap tank. Every option have its place to use.
    and even fb can chose between survivability and dmg. EE with fire blade is a thing for ppl with 2x 50pene+ but nothing special for normal geared fbs for which were previous EE effect way more useful.
    Belts also don't cost 299 ecoins.
    A +10 Talisman would be the third best item in game behind pw5/belt +15

    Well if you build your FB bad you may have trouble tanking...

    Quote Originally Posted by providen1990 View Post
    It should be about 8k USD to get talisman to 10 if u factor in upgrade point. So not too bad
    8000 tries to get 1 talisman is not that bad actually, let say 100 talismans are used daily then 80days later u have 1 lvl10 talisman )
    Uhh...
    theoretically speaking it only takes 1 talisman to go to +10 but the chances of that is 0.0123552%. What you don't understand is that this is probability, you aren't guaranteed anything. You could go past 8094 talismans and never see a +10, hell most people will never see a +10 in their equip slots before they quit. There's no realistic way someone is going to make 100 talismans a day.
    Last edited by doomer123; 04-24-2015 at 01:16 AM.
    RIP El Shaddoll Construct =(

  2. #12
    SIGMetal Enso's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by providen1990 View Post
    It should be about 8k USD to get talisman to 10 if u factor in upgrade point
    I would love to see your source that shows what the percent increase on upgrade points is.

  3. #13
    Shadow Titanium
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    The probability of getting a +10 talisman is 0.0123552%, that is 1/8094 (according to your calculation) which mean every 8094 tries u get one. It doesn't matter if one person doing that or the whole server doing that. After 80 days with 100talismans getting upgraded/day u get 8k trials which should result in a +10 talismans. (of course you are not guaranteed to get one after the first 80days but there is a high chance to get 2talismans/80days also.)

    I don't have the source, it is just purely feeling. But I can reason on my number. Here is how I think upgrading work: Let say you have 4talisman lvl7 and 1 talisman lvl9, the success rate of them is 20%.
    _So you have 5 trials, and the P(success)=20%, u only success or fail so this put the problem into a Binomial Distribution.
    _(From here on you might not understand anything but these are real stuff u can google binomial distribution if u wanna check my solution)
    _So the P(of when you have either 0 or 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 or 5 success)=1, and the P(of when you have 0 success)=0.328.
    _P(of when u have 1 or more success)=1-0.328=0.672(67%). This number means that if you fail 4 trials already, there is 67% success chance on your 5th trial. So instead of losing a bunch of +9 talismans, u can use a bunch of +7 talismans as feed and have 67% success on your last upgrade. (this is greatly reduce the cost)
    I did not even factor in upgrade point but I have a feeling that 1000upgrade point give you about 2% (from my upgrade point event experience), if you do the whole calculation with 10% increase in the success probability u will get something like 84% at the end.

  4. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by providen1990 View Post
    The probability of getting a +10 talisman is 0.0123552%, that is 1/8094 (according to your calculation) which mean every 8094 tries u get one. It doesn't matter if one person doing that or the whole server doing that. After 80 days with 100talismans getting upgraded/day u get 8k trials which should result in a +10 talismans. (of course you are not guaranteed to get one after the first 80days but there is a high chance to get 2talismans/80days also.)

    I don't have the source, it is just purely feeling. But I can reason on my number. Here is how I think upgrading work: Let say you have 4talisman lvl7 and 1 talisman lvl9, the success rate of them is 20%.
    _So you have 5 trials, and the P(success)=20%, u only success or fail so this put the problem into a Binomial Distribution.
    _(From here on you might not understand anything but these are real stuff u can google binomial distribution if u wanna check my solution)
    _So the P(of when you have either 0 or 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 or 5 success)=1, and the P(of when you have 0 success)=0.328.
    _P(of when u have 1 or more success)=1-0.328=0.672(67%). This number means that if you fail 4 trials already, there is 67% success chance on your 5th trial. So instead of losing a bunch of +9 talismans, u can use a bunch of +7 talismans as feed and have 67% success on your last upgrade. (this is greatly reduce the cost)
    I did not even factor in upgrade point but I have a feeling that 1000upgrade point give you about 2% (from my upgrade point event experience), if you do the whole calculation with 10% increase in the success probability u will get something like 84% at the end.
    You're a waste of time if you don't understand that the rate is not guaranteed. I know what binomial distribution is, I'm not retarded like you :/. Statistics is required for business majors over here and it was an easy af class.
    RIP El Shaddoll Construct =(

  5. #15
    Drei Valdoroth's Avatar
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    Providen...You should know cabal by now. Seriously. I have failed twice in a row to slot something with 84% chance of success. It's literally pure chance always. doomer is correct about probablility. There is NO guarentee that after 8094 tries there will be one. That's how probability works. It simply means that it likely. Not it will. There's a distinct difference, and Cabal tends to run on the lower sides of things. I've spent 6b to +15 1 forci item, and spent only 30m to +15 a redosm item. So it's literally pure luck.

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  6. #16
    Osmium jamnotjelly's Avatar
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    Lol i just got whats callled the fuk it mindset and consider everything 50/50 you either succeed or fail. Just the chance that you get the 50% chance to fail is higher then the 50 to succeed weird huh :○

    FB lvl 180 da best
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  7. #17
    Shadow Titanium
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    Assume that cabal probability is exactly like what it states.

    I did say "of course you are not guaranteed to get one after the first 80days but there is a high chance to get 2talismans/80days also." Which mean it is not guaranteed to get one after first 80days or any other 80day periods later. Thing is if you do it a lot, let say after 8000 days, there will be a fair amounts of talismans +10 (close to 100) on the server. Again there is nothing on my post saying you are guaranteed to get anything, please read carefully. If you can point out where in my post i say something like that or imply something like that just show me and then I can edit it.
    The result is if you upgrade four +7 talismans and all fail, there is 67% that you will success on your +9talisman(again nothing is guarantee here). Which will reduce greatly the cost you have to invest in. The way doomer calculates that 0.0123552% is base on the fact that you don't do anything else to increase you chance of getting the +10 talisman. This 0.0123552% is saying ok let have 125 talismans+7 then u should get 25 talismans+8 then 5 talismans+9 then 1 talisman+10 isn't it?(of course nothing is guaranteed)
    Last edited by providen1990; 04-24-2015 at 01:54 PM.

  8. #18
    Shadow Titanium ToasterStrudel's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by providen1990 View Post
    Thing is if you do it a lot, let say after 8000 days,
    see you in 2037

  9. #19
    i failed 11 times in a row with silver repair kits (50%). that's how probability works. everything can happen, you can go straight from +4 to +10 who knows

  10. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by ddnquang View Post
    i failed 11 times in a row with silver repair kits (50%). that's how probability works. everything can happen, you can go straight from +4 to +10 who knows
    Exactly.

    Although I'm not sure why you would use silver(if you bought) because they have terrible alz to success ratios

    Updated op
    Last edited by doomer123; 04-24-2015 at 09:15 PM.
    RIP El Shaddoll Construct =(

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