Originally Posted by

**providen1990**
The probability of getting a +10 talisman is 0.0123552%, that is 1/8094 (according to your calculation) which mean every 8094 tries u get one. It doesn't matter if one person doing that or the whole server doing that. After 80 days with 100talismans getting upgraded/day u get 8k trials which should result in a +10 talismans. (of course you are not guaranteed to get one after the first 80days but there is a high chance to get 2talismans/80days also.)

I don't have the source, it is just purely feeling. But I can reason on my number. Here is how I think upgrading work: Let say you have 4talisman lvl7 and 1 talisman lvl9, the success rate of them is 20%.

_So you have 5 trials, and the P(success)=20%, u only success or fail so this put the problem into a Binomial Distribution.

_(From here on you might not understand anything but these are real stuff u can google binomial distribution if u wanna check my solution)

_So the P(of when you have either 0 or 1 or 2 or 3 or 4 or 5 success)=1, and the P(of when you have 0 success)=0.328.

_P(of when u have 1 or more success)=1-0.328=0.672(67%). This number means that if you fail 4 trials already, there is 67% success chance on your 5th trial. So instead of losing a bunch of +9 talismans, u can use a bunch of +7 talismans as feed and have 67% success on your last upgrade. (this is greatly reduce the cost)

I did not even factor in upgrade point but I have a feeling that 1000upgrade point give you about 2% (from my upgrade point event experience), if you do the whole calculation with 10% increase in the success probability u will get something like 84% at the end.

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