So...

[providen1990]

I know people who go straight from like 4-15 (this chance is as crazy as +10 talisman from 0).
Something that has 50% success chance doesn't mean u will get success after 2 trial or anything close to that, the chance that you fail both trials is pretty high actually (25%).
The chance that u fail 11 silver in a row is 1/20
I have a feeling that some of you only believe in luck and not even try to make your chance greater at upgrading something. But keep in mind probability is making those casinos rich.
The only thing that we need to address is that how real is cabal success chance?

[ToasterStrudel]

The chance that u fail 11 silver in a row is 1/200

cause 1/(2^11) = 1/200 right?

[hanhnn13]

I saw Talisman+8 already

[doomer123]

I saw Talisman+8 already

yea I saw it too, it's ~.31% to get one

[hanhnn13]

they successed to upgrade it so i think the rate is high

or

they have tons of money to use

[providen1990]

Sorry it is 1/20 not 1/200

[Triplethreat]

Providen...You should know cabal by now. Seriously. I have failed twice in a row to slot something with 84% chance of success.

I failed to slot the third slot of a helm with 99% success rate. Luckily, rate was in the first slot so I didn't lose it.

I've also had an item go poof with a 90% chance to unbind it.

If it wasn't for bad luck, I'd have no luck.