no way these are right.
Did you ever try upgrading with safes? With those rates you'd need an average of 50 safes just to upgrade from +14 to +15, which is usually not the case.
(please fix my math if it's wrong).
As far as I've noticed by means of empirical methods (aka upgrading 6-7 pieces myself to +15 with safe and enhancers) the rates from +10 to +15 seems to be the same, with an average success rate of 50%.
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